al-Zawahiri claimed victories in Iraq and Somalia while ridiculing Barak Obama’s Afghanistan policy: “And if you still want to be stubborn about America’s failure in Afghanistan, then remember the fate of Bush and Pervez Musharraf, and the fate of the Soviets and British before them. And be aware that the dogs of Afghanistan have found the flesh of your soldiers to be delicious, so send thousands after thousands to them.” Despite the black poetry of the statement, it begged an attentive reading not because of what it actually said but because of what it left out. What confused me most was the fact that al-Zawahiri chose not to mention two major regions of conflict where al-Qaeda and other Jihadist groups are currently engaged: Kashmir in South Asia and Chechnya in the Caucasus.

The recent terrorist carnage in the Indian financial capital, Mumbai, made those omissions even more noteworthy. Consider the fact that the Mumbai attacks were partly targeted at American, British and Israeli citizens. Also consider that Laskar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), the Pakistan-based group reportedly responsible for the attacks, is a major player in the al-Qaeda network in South Asia. The ultimate goal of the Jihad waged by LeT: Restoration of Islamic rule over all parts of South Asia, Russia and China, through establishing a Muslim caliphate.

Now, if Barak Obama moves the global war on terror waged by the US from Iraq to Afghanistan, we need to compare the geopolitics of the Middle East with that of South Asia. Apparently, Afghanistan is going to replace Iraq as the centre of the conflict. Compare the Indian occupied Kashmir to Palestine noting that India, as the key American ally in the region, is set to become the South Asian version of Israel. In this map, Pakistan replaces Lebanon: A state on the verge of failure, hostage to non-state actors like the Hezbollah guerillas.

US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, has already opposed the notion of Indian unilateral strikes against any militant targets on the Pakistani soil in the wake of Mumbai attacks, saying New Delhi should avoid anything that may worsen the South Asian situation. I am tempted to believe that Rice actually learnt a lesson from the 2006 Lebanon war.

In 2006, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel provoking the Israeli army to start the 34-day war on Lebanon, while the Lebanese government helplessly watched the episode unfold. At the end of the war, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was boasting victory: “They thought the war would lead Hezbollah to give in… Lebanon has been victorious, Palestine has been victorious, Arab nations have been victorious.”

For Pakistani groups like LeT, the humiliating Israeli defeat in that conflict surely set an exciting example, something to be replicated in South Asia: trapping India into a military campaign against Pakistan.

In this backdrop, the latest anti-India statements by Pakistani militant groups beg our attention.

Take Maulvi Omar, spokesman for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, warning India that “Taliban fighters will stand side by side with the Pakistani army in the event of a war… Indian threats following the Mumbai attacks are aimed not at the Pakistani army but at Pakistan as a Muslim country.”

Misri Khan, spokesman for Lashkar-e-Islam: “In the event of an Indian attack, hundreds of thousands of Lashkar-e-Islam fighters will give an appropriate reply to the enemies of Pakistan… Our ancestors offered sacrifices for the defence of Pakistan’s borders, and Lashkar-e-Islam will not hesitate to make any sacrifice for the security of the nation.”

And Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, leader of LeT: “Like any other patriotic Pakistani, we too will stand behind the armed forces if the Indians resort to any aggression against Pakistan’s sovereignty.”

What do we call this militant excitement about becoming the vanguard of Pakistani sovereignty? South Asia’s Hezbollah syndrome, maybe.

Going back to the statement by Ayman al-Zawahiri. The global Jihad has to date greeted each American president with conflicts of their own choice. Bill Clinton faced the Jihadist menace in Africa: Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Sudan. George Bush started the Iraq war, in the Middle East. Now Barak Obama is taking the war to South Asia.

Is Mumbai the tip of a larger iceberg? One question Obama needs to ask al-Zawahiri.